I was recently meeting with a potential new client and at the conclusion of our 1st meeting she candidly asked, “why haven’t any of my previous financial advisors explained things the way that you have? Why don’t they do things the way that you do?”
She was extremely nervous about losing money in her account. She and her husband 1st retired back in 2000, and then proceeded to lose about 1/2 of their retirement nest egg with the the .com crash, which subsequently forced her husband to go back to work.
Later, one of their advisors actually went to jail for embezzling funds from his clients. Although they lost money because of his dishonesty, they decided not to press charges, they simply weren’t the types of people who go around suing people. Although she admitted that she “really didn’t understand all of this financial stuff,” she understood the value of a dollar and repeatedly explained, “If I simply had all of the money that we’ve lost in the market over the years, we would be a lot better off.”
What had appealed to her about our conversation regarding her money, was that I had explained to her how the markets work, and I did it in terms that she could understand. I shared the three core beliefs that FBIAS™: Fact-Based Investment Allocation Strategies are based on, namely:
- We don’t know where the market will go, and neither does anyone else
- Wherever the market goes, it will get there by trending
- Along the way there will be outperformers and underperformers.
Supply and Demand…that is what moves markets. When there are more buyers than sellers, then markets move up. We call these up moves cyclical bull markets. What causes there to be more buyers than sellers? Well, that could be a lot of things: news announcements with surprisingly good job numbers that beat forecasts, upbeat earnings reports that exceed analysts expectations, price to earnings ratios that become attractive enough to entice investors to allocate additional capital, a change in interest rates, or positive wording from the chairperson of the Federal Reserve. It doesn’t matter what the reason is, what matters is that markets are increasing, and when they do, they will trend in a positive direction. Fact-Based portfolios seek to identify the relative strength out performers during those up-trends.
There are no predictions, forecasts, or “efficient market hypothesis” to try to sugar coat things to the clients. Just the facts…..the market facts. Following a series of time-tested trading rules that have been around for over 100 years. This is what makes the portfolios thrive in both good and bad markets.
The power of the Bull Bear Indicator. When should you invest?
I explained that one of the indicators that I use, the “Bull Bear indicator” has proven historically accurate in avoiding the .com crash of 2000-2002, the financial crisis of 08, and has correctly positioned portfolios for the corresponding bull markets of 2003-early 2007, and 2009-2015.
Is it perfect? No, of course not….this is investing, not banking. But it has proven a reliable indicator as to know when you should be in or out of the market. It had a false signal in late 2011, but it reversed itself in early 2012. Mortal of the story: If we are wrong, we don’t stay wrong.
After I explained the rationale behind how we make investment decisions, I explained the portfolio review process and what that entails:
- Social Security strategies
- Health Care
- Long Term Care
- 401(k)/IRA taxation
- Roth Conversions
- Home Equity
- Life Insurance
- Tax planning
- Inflation adjusted retirement income plan
Her retirement is more than just stocks and bonds, it encompasses the bigger, broader picture. Can we help you? Request a 2nd Opinion today!